Today’s post was inspired by the 2024 Cincinnati Reds’ tendency to look like the Big Red Machine in the first game of any given series, and their tendency to look barely above a minor league club for the remainder of the series. The Reds took care of business on Thursday by walloping the Cardinals 11-4 in the first game of their weekend set, but it’s hard to get any hopes up for the rest of the weekend given what’s felt like a season-long trend. It certainly feels like they start out well and then sputter, so I wanted to take a closer look at how the Reds have actually fared in the first game of a series versus how they have played in the remaining two to three games of a series. I also looked at the records of every team in the major leagues to see how the Reds compared.
Before I get to the stats and charts, I wanted to provide some insight on what this site is and how it will be run, given that this is the first post with any real content. This is not a site for truly deep analytical analysis. I am just a guy running a website on the side to scratch both my sports and data science itches while I work a normal, completely unrelated day job to pay the bills. My goal is not to necessarily provide any groundbreaking insight into the Ohio sports data and analysis scene, but merely to provide what may be some interesting facts or insights into the teams that are near and dear to our hearts. The focus will mainly be on Cincinnati and Columbus area teams, with hopefully expansion into the northern part of Ohio at some point in the future. With that being said, let’s take a look at the Reds’ series splits.
The first couple tables here are the records of every team in the majors in game one of a series and then their records in games two to four of the series. Each table is sorted by winning percentage in descending order with games through June 27.
| Record of 2024 MLB Teams in Game 1 of Series | ||||
| Through June 27, 2024 | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies |  |
20 | 7 | 0.741
|
| Cincinnati Reds |  |
18 | 9 | 0.667
|
| Baltimore Orioles |  |
17 | 10 | 0.630
|
| Cleveland Guardians |  |
17 | 10 | 0.630
|
| Los Angeles Dodgers |  |
17 | 10 | 0.630
|
| Atlanta Braves |  |
16 | 10 | 0.615
|
| Seattle Mariners |  |
16 | 10 | 0.615
|
| New York Yankees |  |
16 | 11 | 0.593
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |  |
16 | 11 | 0.593
|
| Los Angeles Angels |  |
15 | 12 | 0.556
|
| Houston Astros |  |
14 | 12 | 0.538
|
| Milwaukee Brewers |  |
14 | 12 | 0.538
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates |  |
14 | 12 | 0.538
|
| Kansas City Royals |  |
14 | 13 | 0.519
|
| San Diego Padres |  |
14 | 13 | 0.519
|
| Minnesota Twins |  |
13 | 13 | 0.500
|
| San Francisco Giants |  |
13 | 13 | 0.500
|
| Washington Nationals |  |
13 | 13 | 0.500
|
| Toronto Blue Jays |  |
13 | 14 | 0.481
|
| New York Mets |  |
12 | 14 | 0.462
|
| Detroit Tigers |  |
12 | 15 | 0.444
|
| Oakland Athletics |  |
11 | 15 | 0.423
|
| Arizona Diamondbacks |  |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
| Chicago Cubs |  |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
| Colorado Rockies |  |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
| Tampa Bay Rays |  |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
| Texas Rangers |  |
10 | 17 | 0.370
|
| Boston Red Sox |  |
9 | 17 | 0.346
|
| Miami Marlins |  |
9 | 18 | 0.333
|
| Chicago White Sox |  |
4 | 22 | 0.154
|
| Ohio Sports Brief | ||||
| Record of 2024 MLB Teams in Games 2-4 of Series | ||||
| Through June 27, 2024 | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | |
34 | 18 | 0.654
|
| New York Yankees | |
35 | 20 | 0.636
|
| Boston Red Sox | |
34 | 20 | 0.630
|
| Baltimore Orioles | |
34 | 21 | 0.618
|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | |
34 | 21 | 0.618
|
| Milwaukee Brewers | |
34 | 21 | 0.618
|
| Philadelphia Phillies | |
33 | 21 | 0.611
|
| Minnesota Twins | |
32 | 23 | 0.582
|
| Kansas City Royals | |
30 | 25 | 0.545
|
| Tampa Bay Rays | |
30 | 25 | 0.545
|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | |
29 | 26 | 0.527
|
| Seattle Mariners | |
30 | 27 | 0.526
|
| Atlanta Braves | |
27 | 25 | 0.519
|
| New York Mets | |
27 | 25 | 0.519
|
| San Diego Padres | |
30 | 28 | 0.517
|
| Chicago Cubs | |
28 | 28 | 0.500
|
| Texas Rangers | |
27 | 27 | 0.500
|
| Houston Astros | |
26 | 28 | 0.481
|
| St. Louis Cardinals | |
26 | 28 | 0.481
|
| Detroit Tigers | |
25 | 28 | 0.472
|
| San Francisco Giants | |
26 | 30 | 0.464
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | |
25 | 29 | 0.463
|
| Washington Nationals | |
25 | 29 | 0.463
|
| Toronto Blue Jays | |
24 | 28 | 0.462
|
| Cincinnati Reds | |
20 | 34 | 0.370
|
| Miami Marlins | |
20 | 34 | 0.370
|
| Los Angeles Angels | |
19 | 34 | 0.358
|
| Chicago White Sox | |
18 | 38 | 0.321
|
| Oakland Athletics | |
18 | 39 | 0.316
|
| Colorado Rockies | |
17 | 37 | 0.315
|
| Ohio Sports Brief | ||||
The first thing that jumps out is that my suspicion about the Reds is apparently completely valid. The Reds have the second-best winning percentage in all of baseball in the first game of a series and come in at sixth worst in the remaining games of the series. Other points of note are that the White Sox are truly terrible in every way, the Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, and Phillies are the pictures of consistency, and the Red Sox are apparently the Reds’ evil twin. Boston checks in as the third-worst team in game one and third best in the remaining games. It goes without saying that given the choice between the two, you would take the Red Sox’s position every time. Below, we have the two charts from above combined with, and sorted by, the overall record of each team:
| 2024 MLB Teams Splits in Games 1 vs. Games 2-4 of Series | ||||||||||
| Through June 27, 2024 | ||||||||||
| Team | Game 1 | Games 2-4 | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Losses | % | Wins | Losses | % | Wins | Losses | % | ||
| Philadelphia Phillies | |
20 | 7 | 0.741
|
33 | 21 | 0.611
|
53 | 28 | 0.654
|
| Cleveland Guardians | |
17 | 10 | 0.630
|
34 | 18 | 0.654
|
51 | 28 | 0.646
|
| Baltimore Orioles | |
17 | 10 | 0.630
|
34 | 21 | 0.618
|
51 | 31 | 0.622
|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | |
17 | 10 | 0.630
|
34 | 21 | 0.618
|
51 | 31 | 0.622
|
| New York Yankees | |
16 | 11 | 0.593
|
35 | 20 | 0.636
|
51 | 31 | 0.622
|
| Milwaukee Brewers | |
14 | 12 | 0.538
|
34 | 21 | 0.618
|
48 | 33 | 0.593
|
| Minnesota Twins | |
13 | 13 | 0.500
|
32 | 23 | 0.582
|
45 | 36 | 0.556
|
| Seattle Mariners | |
16 | 10 | 0.615
|
30 | 27 | 0.526
|
46 | 37 | 0.554
|
| Atlanta Braves | |
16 | 10 | 0.615
|
27 | 25 | 0.519
|
43 | 35 | 0.551
|
| Kansas City Royals | |
14 | 13 | 0.519
|
30 | 25 | 0.545
|
44 | 38 | 0.537
|
| Boston Red Sox | |
9 | 17 | 0.346
|
34 | 20 | 0.630
|
43 | 37 | 0.537
|
| St. Louis Cardinals | |
16 | 11 | 0.593
|
26 | 28 | 0.481
|
42 | 39 | 0.519
|
| San Diego Padres | |
14 | 13 | 0.519
|
30 | 28 | 0.517
|
44 | 41 | 0.518
|
| Houston Astros | |
14 | 12 | 0.538
|
26 | 28 | 0.481
|
40 | 40 | 0.500
|
| New York Mets | |
12 | 14 | 0.462
|
27 | 25 | 0.519
|
39 | 39 | 0.500
|
| Tampa Bay Rays | |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
30 | 25 | 0.545
|
40 | 41 | 0.494
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | |
14 | 12 | 0.538
|
25 | 29 | 0.463
|
39 | 41 | 0.488
|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
29 | 26 | 0.527
|
39 | 42 | 0.481
|
| San Francisco Giants | |
13 | 13 | 0.500
|
26 | 30 | 0.464
|
39 | 43 | 0.476
|
| Washington Nationals | |
13 | 13 | 0.500
|
25 | 29 | 0.463
|
38 | 42 | 0.475
|
| Cincinnati Reds | |
18 | 9 | 0.667
|
20 | 34 | 0.370
|
38 | 43 | 0.469
|
| Toronto Blue Jays | |
13 | 14 | 0.481
|
24 | 28 | 0.462
|
37 | 42 | 0.468
|
| Chicago Cubs | |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
28 | 28 | 0.500
|
38 | 44 | 0.463
|
| Detroit Tigers | |
12 | 15 | 0.444
|
25 | 28 | 0.472
|
37 | 43 | 0.462
|
| Texas Rangers | |
10 | 17 | 0.370
|
27 | 27 | 0.500
|
37 | 44 | 0.457
|
| Los Angeles Angels | |
15 | 12 | 0.556
|
19 | 34 | 0.358
|
34 | 46 | 0.425
|
| Miami Marlins | |
9 | 18 | 0.333
|
20 | 34 | 0.370
|
29 | 52 | 0.358
|
| Oakland Athletics | |
11 | 15 | 0.423
|
18 | 39 | 0.316
|
29 | 54 | 0.349
|
| Colorado Rockies | |
10 | 16 | 0.385
|
17 | 37 | 0.315
|
27 | 53 | 0.338
|
| Chicago White Sox | |
4 | 22 | 0.154
|
18 | 38 | 0.321
|
22 | 60 | 0.268
|
| Ohio Sports Brief | ||||||||||
Again, the only ones that really pop off the screen are the Reds and Red Sox. For the most part, the good teams are good in all games of a series and the bad teams are bad in all games of a series. Sticking to the analysis of the Reds, let’s now take a look at the number of runs scored in game one versus the remaining games of a series for the Reds.
The sample sizes are obviously different with there being significantly fewer “Game 1″‘s than not, but the histograms tell a tale of their own. Just looking from nine runs scored and more, there are noticeably more occurrences in the Game 1 chart. In fact, the Reds have scored exactly eleven runs in a Game 1 as many times as they have scored nine or more runs combined in all Games 2-4. It’s a genuinely inexplicable difference in play. One could theorize that they catch teams a little unsuspecting of their abilities in game one and then make adequate adjustments for the remainder of the series, but that then creates the worry that the Reds are completely unable to adjust to the adjustments, which is a necessary trait for any team looking to contend. The numbers don’t lie – the Reds start hot and fizzle almost immediately.
Today’s post was kept short and sweet as I get things off the ground here at Ohio Sports Brief. Please check back daily as more content is added and more interesting stats and facts about Ohio’s finest athletes are posted.